Political Weather Report: Factors out of candidates’ control By John J. Pitney Jr.

The day is dawning warm and bright for John McCain. But before basking in the good news, he has to ponder the chance that political weather will turn cold and dark.

Alan Greenspan, recently said that the there is at least a 50-percent chance of a recession. Ben Bernanke was not quite as specific but little more optimistic. “The outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months,” he told a Senate committee.

If the United States goes into recession this year, McCain will find it hard to win. Throughout the history of the American elections, recessions have led the voters to punish the party holding the presidency. As conservatives know all too well, McCain has broken ranks with the administration on economic issues. Despite this distance, he would still pay a steep political price for a downturn.

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