The Absurd Report

As I said a couple days ago, I am looking for these polls to say the House and Senate races have tightened up and it’s a tossup race to the wire. The pollsters will explain away the shift in momentum by saying the affect of the Foley Scandal has worn off (it was never a factor in the first place), the voting public has turned their attention to the issues facing this country and a whole host of reasons to explain their previous lopsided polls.

This will put the TV/Radio pundits into a dither because their credibility is also on the line and they will start scrambling for excuses to revise their forecasts as everyone wants to be RIGHT.

Dick Morris here has done a complete 180 with his election prediction and is calling it a “tossup.” I can’t recall how many times I saw Morris predict and write about the Republican massacre that was going to happen in the upcoming November Election.

Evidently Dick has been reading the Bear’s predictions because here is what I said on October 16, 2006.

And Michael Barone who I consider a very good guru for predicting elections results is also calling the upcoming election a “tossup” here.

Barone as of a couple of weeks ago was also predicting a big Republican loss.

As of right now here is the way November 7th election is shaping up. I have a source that has access to the internal Republican polls and he reports there is some very cautious optimism on the part of the Republicans. The key to a Republican win is turnout, now that is no big secret but in this election cycle it remains the unknown factor because of the many disgruntled Conservatives who are unhappy with the Republicans pass performance.

And this from Newt Gingrich

I am interrupting your week with this special edition of “Winning the Future” to deliver news about the 2006 elections — news that you may not have seen in the mainstream media. Despite the constant drumbeat of dire predictions by the New York and Washington-based elite press corps, the momentum of campaign 2006 has shifted — toward the GOP. But don’t expect to read about it in the newspaper.

As this Special Edition of “Winning the Future” goes online, my judgment is that Republicans will almost certainly retain their majority in the Senate and have an even chance to keep the House. In fact, if the current positive trend continues, Republicans could keep the House with a four- to eight-seat margin.

The signs of this momentum shift toward Republicans began to emerge this week.

In New Jersey, Zogby calls the Senate race a “turnaround”: Republican Tom Kean Jr. has taken the lead over Democrat Sen. Robert Menendez.

In Missouri, the Zogby poll puts Republican Senator Jim Talent up three points over his Democratic challenger, Claire McCaskill. Rasmussen has Talent up one point.

These races are all close, and 12 days is a long time in politics. But it sure looks like the electoral winds have shifted. When the Zogby poll asked which party voters prefer, the Democrats’ lead was cut by more than half, down to four points from nine points two weeks ago.

If you’re hearing about this shift in momentum for the first time, don’t worry. You’re not alone. New York Post columnist John Podhoretz thinks it may have something to do with the difference between that he calls “Mainstream Media Time” and “Blog Time.”

Mainstream Media Time is slow and still clings to the conventional wisdom (or is it a hope?) that the 2006 elections are a foregone conclusion of Republican defeat.

Blog Time is fast — it moves at the speed of the Internet. It started noticing the momentum shift to Republicans earlier this week.

Which will be proven right is anyone’s bet. But my money is on Blog Time.

SideBear: THESE GUYS ARE STEALING MY MATERIAL! I have been saying this for a couple of weeks.

Notice the shift in the polls which I predicted and you can read it here.

And I can add this, elections are like horse races, the horse that has the closing momentum going into Election Day usually wins. We are looking at a photo finish at the wire.

Wait until next week, its going to get even better.