Maybe you think I might be drinking Republican ‘Kool-Aid’ but I am not about to concede a majority status to the Democrats in the House of Representatives. I have not doubt that the Republicans will loose seats but the magic question is will they loose enough seats to make the Democrats the majority in the House?

For this to happen the Democrats must win every Democratic incumbent race plus 15 out of some 25 Republican seats which are considered in play. That is a pretty tough order.

I realize that I am a man on island by himself by predicting that the Republicans could very well keep control of their majority status, but before you call the guys in white coats to have me committed, please hear me out.

I have watched the House election race very closely for the last several months and have seen it swing back and forth three times in a matter of days since the first of September. On the first of September the so-called pundits in the know were predicting a Democratic win. By mid-September the race swung in favor of a Republican win. And with the Foley scandal at the end of September just about everyone was predicting a Democratic landslide. There will be no landslide; the majority status will be determined by a couple of seats either way.

Who is to say that this election can not swing one more time?

Forget the headlines in the main stream media because these are no more than campaign ads and propaganda for the Democrats. They have predicted Democratic wins in the last three elections and they have been wrong all three times.

Dismiss the polls that ask the generic question, “Will you vote Republican or Democratic in this coming election?” These polls will have the Democrats ahead by 17 points which is a landslide. There is no 17 point victories in this country as most of our elections are decided by a couple of points. We have a divided electorate in this country almost along a 50/50 line. The number is bogus.

When I looked at the recent Washington Post - ABC News polls last week the generic question showed the Democrats ahead by 13 points. But buried in this poll was what I call the key question. 60% of the same people said that they would vote for their incumbent Representative. If that is the case then the Republicans will loose about ten to twelve seats and retain majority status by a couple of seats.

The reason I put some much importance on the 60% number is because is, All Politics Are Local when it comes to House races and incumbents are reelected at a 95% plus rate. A 5% loss translates into 10 to 12 seats.

And as far Foley sex – no sex scandal, I believe it will have the opposite effect on the Republican Christian Right voter instead of convincing them to stay home in disgust, it will energize them to come out and vote. I know I intend to vote as many times as I can (Don’t call the PC Police on me, I’m just funning).

And for added comfort to my scenario, this country is at a time of war and the American People do not trust the Democrats with our National Security. The key here is for the Republicans to get back on their message, talk about National Security, North Korea’s nukes and the economy.

And when the media presses a Republican about Mark Foley, his answer should be, “The matter is being fully investigated and let’s waits to see the results of the investigation.” Next question.

Could there be another October surprise? You bet, but I am betting on a November surprise.

Now before you call those guys to take me away, want some of my ‘Kool-Aid”? Read the following…..

Related

The Odds on the Bear’s Scenario

As of this writing Robert Novak is predicting a 21 seat loss for the Republicans in the House and a 4 seat loss for the Republicans in the Senate. Novak’s prediction is the Republicans lose the House and hold the Senate. Novak is not alone in his analysis as most of the so-called big time pundits concur with his prediction.

Secondly, I have referred to the future’s market at InTrade several times on this site and as of this writing the money boys are betting that it’s a 70% chance for the Republicans to hold the Senate and only 35% chance to hold the House. In mid September that 35% was a 58% chance to hold the House. The Foley scandal has put this market into a tailspin. As this market is in real time the latest results can be seen here.

But before you set the odds against the Bear, this from Powerline……

This is the most topsy-turvy election season in memory, with trivia largely predominating over the very serious issues that divide the parties. The media’s full-court press may well succeed in pushing the Democrats over the finish line. Still, it would be odd for voters to completely ignore the fundamentals of economics and national security that normally drive elections. Which, I think, is one of the reasons for the hysterical tone of today’s news coverage.

And this from The Washington Post….Do you want to bet against Karl Rove?

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats — shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush’s second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to “run the table,” as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats — a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.

More….

And this….Republicans need to rely on strategy to hold majority

With prospects for maintaining their hold on the House looking uncertain at best, the GOP is heading into the final days before the election with an eye toward strategic concerns. Pundits see the Mark Foley scandal, the Iraq war and general voter dissatisfaction as a perfect storm that Republicans may not be able to weather. Educated guesses (they’re rarely anything more) have placed potential Republican losses in the House between seven and 30 seats. That’s quite a swing, meaning that the GOP is facing either a narrower majority or an all-out disaster.

However, pollsters and pundits are exaggerating the impact of the Mark Foley scandal. While Democrats tried to exploit the extremely well timed blow-up to cripple House Speaker Dennis Hastert, Foley is already taking a back seat to larger issues like North Korea and national security. Barring a widening scandal, it is unlikely that folks will have Mark Foley on their minds when they enter the voting booth on 7 November. To be sure, the page debacle has turned off some conservative voters, but the wider electorate is motivated by national-security issues and the economy, which is benefiting from low unemployment and lower gas prices.

Republicans need to remind voters that these are the issues that matter. They have to hammer home the fact that the Bush tax cuts are a principal reason for our strong economy and the Dow’s record highs. They can also tout the President’s record on national security and the lack of any significant terrorist attack within our country since 9/11. On this score, even the Leftmedia acknowledges that Americans trust Republicans more than Democrats. We don’t like quoting polls, but for those who do, it cannot be denied that President Bush’s marks on national security have always been high, even when his other numbers have dipped substantially.

Playing up to their strengths is what Republicans do best, and that’s what they’ll need to do in the weeks leading up to Election Day. The RNC will be coordinating the broader GOP message, and the particular incumbents will be focusing on their districts. If the specter of Speaker Pelosi doesn’t stir the Republican base into action, nothing will.

Source: Patriot Post

House of Representatives, Foley scandal, National Security, North Korea’s nukes, economy, Mark Foley, Karl Rove, President Bush, Iraq war, Speaker Dennis Hastert, Bush tax cuts, 9/11, Speaker Pelosi   

Tags: Election 06’

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