Has Ahmadinejad Miscalculated? by Victor Davis Hanson
The Bear on Apr 12 2006 at 7:18 am | Filed under: Need to Know
The Iranian president better sober up and do some cool reckoning.
We are now acquainted with the familiar scenario: Iran is supposedly poised to become another disaster like Iraq. The United States, bruised in Iraq, needs redemption, and so will either press onto Teheran in its vainglorious imperial ambitions, or seek to direct attention away from Iraq by conjuring up another dragon to slay.
The Left further alleges that, once more, we favor preemption, wish to attack an Islamic country, will act unilaterally, and will sex up the intelligence to construct a casus belli about mythical “weapons of mass destruction.” The result is that the mere idea of preemption in Iran is just too messy even to contemplate, so we may end up timidly “outsourcing” the problem to others. That is the general critique of our Iranian policy.
Meanwhile, amid that conundrum, the Iranians are engaged in a three-part strategy to obtain nuclear weapons. First, they conduct military exercises, showing off novel weapons systems with purportedly exotic capabilities, while threatening to unleash terror against global commerce and the United States.
And the Austin Bay Blog adds….
Does Iran want war?
A fine essay by Ralph Peters.
Sy Hersh is a provacateur, not a reporter. StrategyPage has covered all of the options Hersh mentions– without the breathless hype and fearmongering. But here’s a link to Hersh’s latest New Yorker screed.
Get a load:
One military planner told me that White House criticisms of Iran and the high tempo of planning and clandestine activities amount to a campaign of “coercion” aimed at Iran. “You have to be ready to go, and we’ll see how they respond,” the officer said. “You have to really show a threat in order to get Ahmadinejad to back down.” He added, “People think Bush has been focussed on Saddam Hussein since 9/11,” but, “in my view, if you had to name one nation that was his focus all the way along, it was Iran.” (In response to detailed requests for comment, the White House said that it would not comment on military planning but added, “As the President has indicated, we are pursuing a diplomatic solution”; the Defense Department also said that Iran was being dealt with through “diplomatic channels” but wouldn’t elaborate on that; the C.I.A. said that there were “inaccuracies” in this account but would not specify them.)
Campaign of coercion — well, duh. Or rational preparations. Or military prepatory actions to support diplomatic initiatives. This is news? No, this is schtick.
As for “the nuclear option”:
More….
Iran, Iraq, weapons of mass destruction
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